#Fpl price changes full#
The result of this imbalance is a ratio of drops to rises of 6.5/1, almost double the full season ratio given above. This early high of 26 is matched or beaten by both subsequent international windows, however with GW9 being the peak of the season on 32, and GW13 with 26. And in the first confirmation of the doubts around the international break, GW5 is the lowest of the bunch with only 15 rises. Meanwhile however, in the same period, the average number of price rises, at 20, remains quite close to the season average of 17, with the highest in the period being GW with 26 rises. 30% of all price drops in the entire season occur in the 5 GWs from GW3 to GW7, with an average of 129 drops per GW in this period, which is more than double the full season average of 58. However, the scale of the imbalance is again striking. It’s hardly groundbreaking that the table confirms a much higher level of price variability in the first quarter of the season. That alone is a startling figure representing a ratio of falls to rises of 3.35/1. Overall there were 636 price rises in the season, against a whopping 2,133 price drops – that’s 213.3m in total drops and a net reduction in value of the overall FPL roster of nearly £150m.
Starting with the most complete data, Chart 1 below shows the weekly numbers of price rises and falls for all 37 relevant GWs in the 2015/16 season.
The Numbers (and some nice bar charts if you’re into that sort of thing!) I therefore did some simple analysis of the rates of rises vs drops at the start of the 2014/15, hence the first 6 GW data, before deciding to capture the full picture from last season. I have felt over the last two seasons that (for the serious FPL player) ignoring price changes in the first half of the season was still a mistake, despite the new landscape. However, it was also noticeable that the rate of price drops had not slowed, and had possibly increased, and the relevance of this has been rising in many managers consciousness. An intention to explode the international break myth was the genesis of my collecting price rise data in the first place.īut it became apparent quite quickly in 2014/15 that something was different, with the popular belief (among people who know about these things) being that wildcard transfers no longer counted towards price changes, as well as possible other tweaks to the formulae by FPL Towers.Īs a result of the much slower rate of price rises, many people therefore began to place less value on the “early wildcard for team value” strategy, indeed some suggested that paying attention to team value was now a waste of time with such apparently little advantage to be gained. I personally always felt that the first international window was somewhat overrated, with the same levels of transfers over a longer period not necessarily improving the “profitability” and tended to go the week after where I could last that long. The plan being to ‘ride the price rises’ in your wildcard week, banking the 0.1 when a player rose twice and them moving him on before picking your actual team at the end of the week. Thus the logic of the popular strategy to wildcard early, especially around the first international window and potentially gain significant team value. Up ’till then, price rises happened much more rapidly, with double and treble rises in a single GW commonplace, especially early in the season. Most who have played FPL for 3 or more years are likely to be at least somewhat aware of the sharp change in the behaviour of player prices after the 2013/14 season. I’m assuming those reading this have a level of knowledge of the FPL price changes system, and am not going to repeat the basics which if needed, can be found elsewhere. These records include the time and date of the price change so it is relatively easy to classify them by GW and manipulate the information in Excel. Unfortunately, I have only partial data from 2014/15 (GWs 2 to 6) but I captured from (.uk) all records of price changes from 2015/16. 1:47pm This article is based on analysis of data on the number of player price rises and falls per Gameweek over the last two seasons.
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